It's that time of year. Mark Hanok's annual winter weather forecast is here. Sponsored by Wickes Arborists 354 -3400. Wickes Arborist is the exclusive distributor in the US for Arborsonic, a minimally invasive tree decay detection device. Basically speaking, it's ultrasound for a tree. It gives the ability to literally see inside the tree. Wickes Arborists is also a certified tree risk assessor. Wickes Arborists - an accredited tree care company, where your property is their branch office - 354-3400
Mark Hanok's long range winter forecast will be broadcast periodically on the Steve and Charlie morning show through the week of October 10th and on demand any time at WRCR.com
November 1 - 10: November will begin with a large area of high pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic states. After a very cool start to the month, look for a significant warming trend November 3rd - 8th, as a major storm system lifts northward. a southwesterly flow around the high will continue the unseasonably warm and dry weather pattern that prevailed during most of October. In fact highs in the low 70's will continue during the first few days of November. Then a major change will take place, with a much colder than normal weather pattern fot the first time in eight months. This will occur with a shift from a high pressure ridge to a trough over the Northeast. Rain will be briefly heavy but most of the rain may stay to the north and west. A storm system will lift northward to eastern Canada during the 7th-9th, and strong northwest winds will take over with the first snow flurries of the season.
11-20: Another large high will build eastward from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley, bringing mild, dry air, A huge storm will take shape in the southern plains and bring a southwest flow of very mild air but as a sharp cold front crosses the region in the middle of the month, temperatures will get back to below normal with a west to northwest flow of colder air, but all the snow showers will stay to the north. Then a major coastal low will develop and track northeastward up the coast, then well east of Cape Cod, bringing only rain showers to Rockland County.
21 - 30: As the storm intensifies over the Canadian Maritimes, northwesterly winds around the storm will bring much colder air, with an inch or two of snow the day before Thanksgiving and on Thanksgiving Day, with even several inches of snow over higher elevations, then windy, cold and dry on the 25th-30th.
December 1 -10: An Alberta clipper will begin what will turn out to be a wild month of weather. The clipper will ride a very strong northwesterly jet stream, with strong upper-level winds. In fact, the low will track southeastward from Minnesota all the way to western Virginia, bringing heavy snow to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, with heavy lake-effect snow across western and central New York and western Pennsylvania. Most of the snow will stay to the west and northwest of Rockland County, but an upper-level low to the west may bring a few inches of snow on the 6th -9th. Otherwise, windy, cold and dry with partly sunny skies.
11 - 20: The combination of powerful northwest winds aloft and a nearly stationary, intense storm system north of New England will continue the very cold weather pattern. A major storm system will take shape in the mid-Mississippi Valley around the
13th-16th and move quickly eastward, bringing heavy snow from Tennessee to the western Carolinas, then northward to western Pennsylvania. Heavy, wet snow will quickly change to rain and this could be a heavy rain event. As the storm moves northeastward to northern New England, very cold air will wrap around the low, and rain will change back to snow, with half a foot of snow in Rockland County. The pattern will drastically change on the 17th-20th, as another storm develops, this time much further north in the western Great Lakes, then lifts north of Lake Superior. At the same time, high pressure will become nearly stationary to the east of New England, and unseasonably mild air will take over with partly sunny skies and temperatures soaring to the 60’s and even low 70’s.
21 - 30: A strong cold front will bring sharply colder air on the 21st-23rd, and there’s a good chance for a Christmas Eve snowstorm as a weak low rapidly intensifies east of the New Jersey shore and moves east of Long Island. Rockland County may get over a foot of snow, possibly two feet if the storm stays close enough to the coast and moves slowly. Windy, cold, dry weather is likely for the last week of 2011.
January 1 - 10: The brand-new year will begin with cold, dry, arctic air in place, as high pressure becomes nearly stationary over eastern Canada. Low pressure will develop over the southeastern states and track northeastward to the Carolina coast around the 3rd-5th, turning into a classic Nor’Easter. With enough cold air in place, precipitation will start as snow, and Rockland County could get over a foot of snow, changing to sleet and freezing rain and this could turn into a major ice storm. Winds could gust to over 50 MPH as precipitation changes back to snow, with considerable blowing and drifting. Even colder air will follow the storm, with highs only in the single digits and teens on the 6th-10th, with bright sunshine, but this could be a major lake-effect snow event to the north and west from the Catskills to Lake Ontario.
11- 20: An Alberta Clipper will dive southeastward to Lake Superior then north of Lake Ontario on very strong northwesterly winds aloft, then bring a few inches of snow around the 13th-16th. Seasonably cold, dry weather will take over from the 17th-20th as a storm develops far to the south and moves well east of the South Carolina coast, bringing heavy snow across the eastern Carolinas.
21 - 30: As a large ridge of high pressure moves eastward to New England, milder air will finally arrive, with a classic January thaw on the 23rdd-27th with partly sunny skies and highs in the 50’s to low 60’s. Arctic air will quickly return on the last four days of the month, with sunny skies and northwest winds gusting over 40 MPH.
1 - 10: As the month begins, a very strong northwesterly jet stream will take over, as a fast-moving Alberta Clipper slices unusually far to the south, from Minnesota to Ohio and North Carolina. A large high over the Great Lakes and New England will maintain a very cold, exceptionally dry weather pattern in the Northeast, with brilliant sunshine each day and highs in the teens and 20’s.
11 - 20: On the 11th-13th, low pressure will move eastward from the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic states along a stationary front, and warmer air aloft with overrun the very cold air at the surface, and snow will quickly change to sleet and freezing rain and then all rain. There may be a major ice storm mainly north of Rockland County. Milder air will arrive as a warm front lifts north of the region on the 14th-17th, with mostly cloudy skies and light showers. Then as a major storm will move through the western Great Lakes then far to the north to James Bay, a strong cold front will move through our area with west to southwest winds gusting over 50 MPH and seasonably cold air and a few snow showers.
21 - 29: A large area of high pressure in place over the mid-Atlantic states, will bring mild, dry air with sunny to partly sunny skies through the 25th. Then a coastal storm will rapidly intensify well east of the Delmarva Peninsula and move northward, bringing half a foot of snow to Rockland County, followed by very strong winds, partly sunny skies and highs in the 20’s.
OTSEGO AND DELAWARE COUNTY, NY WEATHER FORECAST
Saturday, February 4, 2012
Today: Partly sunny and cool. High:
35-40.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy and cold with the chance of snow showers. Low: 20-25.
Sunday: Partly sunny with the chance of snow flurries. High: 33-38.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear and cold. Low: 22-27.
Monday: Brilliant sunshine and mild. High: 38-43.
Tuesday: Partly sunny, breezy and cooler. High: 32-37.
Wednesday: Partly sunny and seasonably cold. High: 30-35.
Thursday: Variable cloudiness and cool with the chance of snow showers. High:
35-40.
Friday: Partly sunny, breezy and cool. High: 37-42.
Daily Weather Gazette
Friday, February 3rd:
A zonal west to east flow continued aloft, with above normal temperatures across most of the nation. Low pressure moving across the southern Great Plains, brought blizzard to the Denver areas eastward to central Nebraska, but the cold air was limited to right near the storm. To the north temperatures were still well above normal; the high was 42 degrees at Great Falls, Montana. As high pressure settled southward to the mid-Atlantic states, a weak trough pushed eastward to western New York. Skies were partly sunny through early afternoon in the Western Catskills, then mostly cloudy; highs in the mid-30’s. It was just another sunny day in the lower Hudson Valley and western Connecticut, with highs in the low 40’s.
Landscape Climatology is a very unique service offered to sellers of houses in two regions:
1. The area served by Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service: The Bronx, Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess Counties. Mark Hanok, Realtor with Gains Realty in Thornwood, is offering this service for free to sellers who decide to list their properties with Mark.
2.Fairfield and Litchfield Counties, Connecticut – for a charge of $700 per report, for homes with up to one acre of land, plus $300 for each additional acre.
The objectives of a Landscape Climatology evaluation is to sell a home faster due to potential buyers knowing that they can save in energy costs based on the location of the property, and the risk of flooding. The summary will include three important features:
An assessment of the location of the house in relation to solar exposure and wind patterns. For example, a house on a south-facing slope will use less energy heating the house than a similar property that is on the north side of a hill. There are two reasons for the energy savings: more direct sunlight warms the house, and less heat is lost since north and northwest winds are partially deflected by the hill. These lower energy costs are not related to installing solar power, just due to the micro-climate of the property.
2. Whether or not the location of the house is suitable for the installation of solar panels and where these solar panels can be located. There are no recommendations for solar energy companies or installers, and no guarantees or estimates on energy savings.
3. Whether or not the location of the house is suitable for the installation of wind turbines, and where these turbines can be located. However, we can provide no recommendations for wind power companies or installers, and no guarantees or estimates on energy savings.
Here’s one example:
North Looking South House, White Plains, New York
Description: A remarkable house situated at an unusual location on a steep hillside overlooking downtown White Plains and beautiful Silver Lake to the east. The house is on the northeast side of the hill, but the property faces south. That's because there's a ridge that suns just north of the house, then lower elevations to the north of that ridge. The top of the hill on the highest street, Mohawk Trail, is 410 feet above sea level -the highest hill within two miles. Orchard Hill is two miles to the west. From the east side of the hill, Quarry Heights with elevations up to 500 feet, can be seen two miles to the east. There’s a steep gradient downhill to the east, just a block away from North Facing South House, and the Bronx River is a half-mile to the east. While generally open to the west, the north side of the hill rises in elevation to the west of North Facing South House, so it isn't a clear view to the west. However, the landscape gently slopes in a westerly direction and the Hudson River is only five miles to the west. The house faces south, with a nearby overlook to the southeast and east.
Solar Energy Advantages:
Although North Facing South House is actually on the north side of the hill, there's a very good southerly exposure, not only because the house is on the north side of the street but there's open land in a southerly direction. Solar panels can be placed on a southerly exposure on the roof, as there's sunlight here at least half the day even when the sun is lowest in the sky. they can be put on the east and west sides and get nearly full sunshine throughout the day. The eastern horizon can be seen from the front yard. In addition to the advantage of nearly full sunshine in the morning and early afternoon, mainly deciduous trees allow for more sunlight in winter than in summer.
Wind Power Advantages:
Thanks to its unique location, wind power can be an important source of energy at North Facing South House. No matter which direction the wind is blowing, there can be wind energy from wind turbines. Even though the house doesn’t face west, the westerlies are the prevailing winds, so there's sufficient wind velocity from this direction. East and northeast winds are actually the strongest winds at North Facing South House, since the steep gradient of the hill slides to the east and northeast to the Bronx River Parkway and North White Plains. Since there’s an open expanse to the east and northeast, when winds blow from these directions, the wind velocity is much higher than just a few blocks to the west and slightly lower in elevation. Highest winds from this direction are not as favorable as when the highest winds are out of the west, but these storm winds can provide abundant wind power.
Late Fall and Winter Benefits:
The slope of the land is slightly upward to the east, so this is a positive factor for morning sunshine that can heat the house in the winter at the coldest time of the day. The slightly higher elevation, trees and houses to the northwest, are a positive factor, blocking to some extent the strong northwesterly winds during the cold weather months. Even though North Facing South House is located on a street looking north, the southerly exposure of the front yard and the open space toward the south, ensures that this is a warmer location in late fall and winter, compared to many other locations in the neighborhood. The westerly exposure, with open views to the west, allows drying prevailing winds to blow across Mohawk Hilltop.
During the coldest time of year, the downsloping effect greatly benefits North Facing South House. West to northwest prevailing winds in winter, blow across the Catskills and the Hudson Highlands, warming up and losing moisture, just like in a high pressure system. The result is much warmer air in Westchester than over central New York and the Catskills. In fact, there may be some days when it's snowing and 30 degrees at Oneonta, while 50 degrees and mostly sunny at North Facing South House.
Late Spring and Summer Benefits:
When sea breezes develop in late spring and early summer, North Facing South House is well-positioned for the greatest benefits. Long Island Sound is only 7 miles to the east and south, so there’s a definite advantage here compared to places further inland. Another important feature is that the top of the hill is 410 feet above sea level, or 400 feet for the front yard. That may not seem like a high elevation, but what matters is that it’s high relative to surrounding places such as the Bronx River nearly 200 feet lower, the same elevation as downtown White Plains. Locations like Elmsford just west of North Facing South House are about 250 to 300 feet in elevation. The relatively high elevation of Mohawk Hilltop House equals cooler air on the hottest summer days, or about 5 degrees cooler than downtown White Plains or Elmsford.
At an elevation of 410 feet above sea level, temperatures on the hottest days are actually about five to ten degrees cooler than New York City, and there’s usually a breeze at Mohawk Hilltop House, especially when the winds are blowing out of a southwest, southerly, or southeasterly direction. The same towering trees to the south that allow the warm sunlight to reach Mohawk Hilltop House in the winter, shade the landscape in summer. The hilltop doesn’t heat up as rapidly as at locations without this early morning shade. In addition, these forests at Travis Hill Park serve to cool the air in the direction where most of the hot air is coming from: to the south toward New York City.
INTERPRETIVE WEATHER HIKE AT ROCKEFELLER STATE PARK IN POCANTICO HILLS, NEW YORK
Wind Direction and Barometric Pressure
Fall 2010
Presented by Mark Hanok, meteorologist on WRCR in Rockland County, NY
OBJECTIVES
1. To increase scientific literacy through integrating the essential elements of meteorology with the Earth sciences, mathematics, geography, natural history, and language arts, in a way that is immediately relevant to elementary and middle school students.
2. To explore the interrelationships between micro-climates, topography, and eco-systems.
3. To build an understanding of and appreciation for our planet and its atmosphere, through interactive learning and guided discovery.
This workshop meets the following New York State learning standards:
The Arts
Standard 2: Knowing and using arts materials and resources
English Language Arts
Standard 3: Language for critical analysis and evaluation
Standard 4: Language for social interaction
Mathematics, science, and technology
Standard 1: Analysis, inquiry, and design
Standard 3: Mathematics
Standard 4: Science
Standard 6: Interconnected - common themes
Standard 7: Interdisciplinary problem-solving
Social Studies
Standard 1: History of the United States and New York
Standard 3: Geography
PROGRAM
1. Introduction to weather: Uneven heating of the Earth’s surface caused by differences in the angle of the sun and the intensity of incoming solar radiation from the equator to the north and south poles, causes weather. Clouds provide important clues about the weather; we can forecast the local weather by looking at the sky and observing the wind direction.
2. Interpretive weather hike:
A. The theme is interrelationships as we go on a hike on the Overlook trail. This habitat is an upland hardwood forest, and the trees reflect this eco-system. The elevation is higher, so it’s a cooler location. We can look down at Swan Lake and see that it’s at a lower elevation. We’re looking east toward Swan Lake, and there are no hills blocking the wind, so from this location on the Overlook trail, the highest winds are usually from the east and northeast. On the opposite, or east side of Swan Lake, facing west, the highest winds are usually from a westerly direction. When we arrive at Swan Lake, we explore two very distinct micro-climates: the south and north sides of the lake. The north side is the warmer side since it faces south and gets the most direct sunlight; the south shore faces north, and gets cooler north and northwest wind, while facing away from the direct sunlight.
B. Majestic rock outcroppings overlook this very diverse landscape like sentinels. They are relics of the last Great Ice Age. These unique rock formations create their own micro-climates, blocking cold north and northwest winds. We’ll discover how prevailing west and northwest winds downsloping off the Catskill Mountains and Hudson Highlands, can bring mild, dry weather to Rockland County, while lake-effect snow showers occur in central New York.
3. Building weathervanes: Students work in small groups and construct weathervanes using a variety of simple materials. Blacks of wood 3" square, are given to each student and the different directions are written on the block of wood: N, NE, E, SE, S, SW, W, NW. Wooden dowels are placed in the hole in the center of each block. Next, students cut the weathervane arrows out of cardboard and staple to a straw; the straw is then placed over the dowel in the center of the block. Each student can draw pictures on the arrows.
4. Using weathervanes to determine wind direction: First we find north. The sun rises in the east and sets in the west; the sun moves from east to south to west. In the middle of the day the sun is in the southern sky. Look in the opposite direction to find north. Facing north, east is to the right and west is to the left. One group of students can go to the north side of an open field while the other group goes to the south end of the field. Students can hold the weathervanes in the wind, and find the wind direction. In this way, we discover important differences in wind velocity and temperature from one side of the field to the other side of the field.
5. Conclusion: Students look at the relationship between wind direction and the local landscape. We’ll discuss the links between topography and micro-climates. Finally, students draw pictures that highlight some of the unique characteristics of the local landscape.
The same format of this workshop can be applied to any park or nature center, for the general public or any elementary or middle school group. For additional information or to schedule a weather workshop, contact Mark Hanok, at weathergazette@aol.com or call WRCR radio at (845) 624-1300.
TUTORING IN GRADES K-12
Mark Hanok, Interpretive meteorologist
Certified teacher
Earth science
middle grades math
K-12 reading
K-6 elementary
Masters Degree in Literacy
Tutoring and homework help for elementary and middle grades students in the following regions:
Rockland, Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess Counties, New York
Otsego, Delaware, and Chenango Counties, New York
Fairfield and Litchfield Counties, Connecticut
Berkshire County, Massachusetts
Mark will tutor students in any subject area in grades K-8, and Earth science grades 6-12. One-hour tutoring sessions are held once per week during the school year, at a local library or at the home of the student.
For complete information and a list of local references, e-mail westerncatskillsmath@gmail.com. Or call WRCR radio at (845) 624-1300.
Mark Hanok's qualifications are very impressive. Mark's professional work experience and outstanding teaching qualifications in elementary and middle school mathematics and science; innovative, interactive approach to teaching these subjects; exceptional classroom management skills; and the fact that I very much enjoy working with elementary school students and as a team player with other teachers; adds up to an excellent match for an Earth science, middle school math, or K-12 reading teaching position at a school in New York, Connecticut, or Massachusetts, where Mark is a certified teacher. Mark uses a teaching model that favors integrating math, science, social studies, and language arts, with real world connections.
Currently Mark is writing a book on hands-on math activities for sixth through eighth graders, entitled Middle School Math and Weather Connections. I presented a seminar Representing Middle School Math Concepts through Hands-On Weather Workshops, at the Association of Math Teachers of New York State annual conference in Saratoga Springs in October 2006, at the NCTM Annual Meeting and Exposition in Atlanta in March 2007, and at the Association of Math Teachers of New York State annual conferences in Rochester in October 2007 and in Rye, NY in November 2008.
From November 2006 through February 2007, Mark was employed at Woodlands Middle School in Hartsdale, NY, for an interim position. He worked with 154 students in nine different seventh and eighth grade classes, and this proved to be a very rewarding teaching experience. Using a teaching model that favors integrating middle school math, science, and English language arts, Mark worked with students who required special instruction in order to pass the New York State middle school math assessments.
For many years Mark has served as a meteorologist in Rockland County, New York, including Radio Rockland WRCR in Nanuet, NY, since 1999. He's been the editor of the Western Catskills Weather Gazette since 1991, and the Cooperstown Weekly Weather Column since 1995.
During the past ten years Mark has conducted 220 very successful, hands-on weather workshops for elementary, middle, and high school students in New York State and Connecticut. Mark has presented these workshops at schools in rural, suburban, and urban settings, including working with the New York City Parks Department at parks and recreation centers in the Bronx. He also has presented these unique programs at environmental education centers in Westchester County and in Connecticut. The workshops weave together some essential elements of Earth science, with mathematics, geography, and natural history, in a way that is immediately relevant to elementary and middle school students.
Mark Hanok looks forward to working at your school. To schedule an interview, contact Mark at (607) 988-6391, or
e-mail westerncatskillsmath@gmail.com.
CUSTOMIZED WEATHER SERVICE FOR HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS ANYWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST
ONE YEAR CONTRACT - July 1 - June 30
1. Detailed sky conditions for each day and night for the next seven days, including cloud cover, and the times of days with the most and the least amount of sunshine.
2. Precipitation forecasts for the next seven days, including the estimated times that rain, mixed precipitation or snow will begin and end, and what type of precipitation is likely at certain times of the day and night.
3. Specific temperatures at your location at different times of the day and night, for the next seven days, including minimum and maximum temperature forecasts.
4. Specific wind forecasts, including wind direction and velocity for each day and night, for the next seven days.
5. Relative humidity and dew point temperatures for each day and night, for the next seven days.
Weather services described above,
e-mailed every day of the year:
$1950.00
